AE Overview

Cal-Adapt Analytics Engine: Threshold Tools Application Examples

A notebook on specific threshold-related applications with the climakitae package and threshold_tools. The notebook walks through both basic and advanced topics and covers capabilities such as evaluating goodness of fit, calculating return values and return periods, subsetting and filtering data, observing trends through time, and more.

The notebook focuses on two major threshold_tools applications: updating design standards and asset-by-asset vulnerability assessments, which are highlighted as application examples throughout the notebook.

Step 0: Import

Import neccessary packages before running analysis

import xarray as xr
import panel as pn
pn.extension()

!pip install git+https://github.com/OpenHydrology/lmoments3.git

import climakitae as ck
from climakitae import threshold_tools

Threshold Basics: Exploring Applications At County-Level

Step 1: Select

Load a new application and call select to display interface from which to choose location, variables, scenarios, and designate warming levels of interest

app = ck.Application()

Call select to display an interface from which to select the data to examine

For this section, please select:

“daily” timescale,
“2m Air Temperature”,
“9 km” resolution,
“SSP3-7.0 — Business as Usual” scenario with “Append historical”,
and “Ca counties” area subset with “Scramento County” cached area.

app.select()

Step 2: Retrieve

Call app.retrieve() to load the subset/combo of data specified

sacramento_ds = app.retrieve()
sacramento_ds

Convert default units to desired units

Note: Unit conversions are set to be built as a capability into climakitae package, so eventually manual coded conversions will not be necessary

sacramento_ds.data = sacramento_ds.data - 273.15
sacramento_ds.attrs['units'] = '˚C'

Subset data by scenario and simulation to prepare it for threshold_tools functions

Note: Currently threshold_tools requires a dataarray where this is only 1 simulation and 1 scenario selected

sacramento_da = sacramento_ds.sel(simulation='cnrm-esm2-1')

Step 3: Transform

Pull Annual Maximum Series (AMS) for all grid cells

sacramento_ams = threshold_tools.get_ams(sacramento_da, extremes_type='max')
sacramento_ams = sacramento_ams.compute()

Subset data by time to prepare it for specific application

sacramento_1980_ams = sacramento_ams.sel(time=slice('1980-01-01', '2010-01-01'))

Utilize KS test to calculate goodness of fit of selected distribution

Application Example: A electric utility in Sacramento wants to ensure that the return value and return period results they calculate are “statistically sound” and appropriate to use for their asset vulnerability assessments and design standards.

For instance, is the GEV probability distribution a good fit for the data and the right probabibility distribution to calculate return values and return periods?

sacramento_1980_ks = threshold_tools.get_ks_stat(sacramento_1980_ams, distr='gev', multiple_points=True)
sacramento_1980_ks

Calculate return value for a selected return period

Application Example: A electric utility planning on building new electrical equipment in Sacramento wants to calculate the value of a 1-in-20-year extreme temperature event that occurred historically (during the 1980-2010 time period) as a benchmark input for updating the design standards of new equipment.

sacramento_1980_rv = threshold_tools.get_return_value(sacramento_1980_ams, return_period=20,
                                                      distr='gev', bootstrap_runs=100,
                                                      conf_int_lower_bound=2.5,
                                                      conf_int_upper_bound=97.5,
                                                      multiple_points=True)
sacramento_1980_rv

Calculate return period for a selected return value

Application Example: A electric utility with existing electrical infrastructure in Sacramento wants to calculate the return period of a 35 degrees C temperature event that occurred historically (during the 1980-2010 time period) as a benchmark input for their reoccuring asset vulnerability assessment.

sacramento_1980_rp = threshold_tools.get_return_period(sacramento_1980_ams, return_value=35,
                                                       distr='gev', bootstrap_runs=100,
                                                       conf_int_lower_bound=2.5,
                                                       conf_int_upper_bound=97.5,
                                                       multiple_points=True)
sacramento_1980_rp

Step 4: Visualize

Visualize goodness of fit of distribution

threshold_tools.get_geospatial_plot(sacramento_1980_ks, data_variable='p_value')

Visualize return value

threshold_tools.get_geospatial_plot(sacramento_1980_rv, data_variable='return_value')

Visualize return period

threshold_tools.get_geospatial_plot(sacramento_1980_rp, data_variable='return_period', bar_max=100)

Threshold Advanced: Exploring Variations At County-Level

Step 3: Transform

Subset data by time to prepare it for specific application

sacramento_2020_ams = sacramento_ams.sel(time=slice('2020-01-01', '2050-01-01'))
sacramento_2050_ams = sacramento_ams.sel(time=slice('2050-01-01', '2080-01-01'))

Calculate return value for a selected return period

Application Example: A electric utility planning on building new electrical equipment in Sacramento wants to calculate the value of a 1-in-20-year extreme temperature event that will occur in the future (during the 2020-50 and 2050-80 time periods) to ensure:

that the planned equipment has the appropriate design standards to withstand extreme temperature events in the future,
and to update the design standards for any future equipment built.

sacramento_2020_rv = threshold_tools.get_return_value(sacramento_2020_ams, return_period=20,
                                                distr='gev', bootstrap_runs=100,
                                                conf_int_lower_bound=2.5,
                                                conf_int_upper_bound=97.5,
                                                multiple_points=True)
sacramento_2020_rv

sacramento_2050_rv = threshold_tools.get_return_value(sacramento_2050_ams, return_period=20,
                                                distr='gev', bootstrap_runs=100,
                                                conf_int_lower_bound=2.5,
                                                conf_int_upper_bound=97.5,
                                                multiple_points=True)
sacramento_2050_rv

Calculate return period for a selected return value

Application Example: A electric utility with existing electrical infrastructure in Sacramento wants to calculate the return period of a 44 degrees C temperature event that that will occur in the future (during the 2020-50 and 2050-80 time periods) to understand:

if the existing infrastructure will be impacted by more frequently occurring extreme temperature events in the future,
and to complete a more robust asset-by-asset vulnerability assessment.

For the utility, 33 degrees C (hypothetically) repersents a county-wide historic average for a 1-in-20-year extreme temperature event (during the 1980-2010 time period).

sacramento_1980_rp = threshold_tools.get_return_period(sacramento_1980_ams, return_value=33,
                                                       distr='gev', bootstrap_runs=100,
                                                       conf_int_lower_bound=2.5,
                                                       conf_int_upper_bound=97.5,
                                                       multiple_points=True)
sacramento_1980_rp

sacramento_2020_rp = threshold_tools.get_return_period(sacramento_2020_ams, return_value=33,
                                                       distr='gev', bootstrap_runs=100,
                                                       conf_int_lower_bound=2.5,
                                                       conf_int_upper_bound=97.5,
                                                       multiple_points=True)
sacramento_2020_rp

sacramento_2050_rp = threshold_tools.get_return_period(sacramento_2050_ams, return_value=33,
                                                       distr='gev', bootstrap_runs=100,
                                                       conf_int_lower_bound=2.5,
                                                       conf_int_upper_bound=97.5,
                                                       multiple_points=True)
sacramento_2050_rp

Step 4: Visualize

Visualize return value

threshold_tools.get_geospatial_plot(sacramento_1980_rv, data_variable='return_value',
                                    bar_min=25, bar_max=50)

threshold_tools.get_geospatial_plot(sacramento_2020_rv, data_variable='return_value',
                                    bar_min=25, bar_max=50)

threshold_tools.get_geospatial_plot(sacramento_2050_rv, data_variable='return_value',
                                    bar_min=25, bar_max=50)

Visualize return period

threshold_tools.get_geospatial_plot(sacramento_1980_rp, data_variable='return_period',
                                    bar_min=1, bar_max=100)

threshold_tools.get_geospatial_plot(sacramento_2020_rp, data_variable='return_period',
                                    bar_min=1, bar_max=100)

threshold_tools.get_geospatial_plot(sacramento_2050_rp, data_variable='return_period',
                                    bar_min=1, bar_max=100)

Threshold Advanced: Exploring Variations Statewide

Step 1: Select

Call select to display an interface from which to select the data to examine

For this section, please select:

“daily” timescale,
“2m Air Temperature”,
“9 km” resolution,
“SSP3-7.0 — Business as Usual” scenario with “Append historical”,
and “states” area subset with “CA” cached area.

app.select()

Step 2: Retrieve

Call app.retrieve() to load the subset/combo of data specified

ca_ds = app.retrieve()
ca_ds

Convert default units to desired units

Note: Unit conversions are set to be built as a capability into climakitae package, so eventually manual coded conversions will not be necessary

ca_ds.data = ca_ds.data - 273.15
ca_ds.attrs['units'] = '˚C'

Subset data by scenario and simulation to prepare it for threshold_tools functions

ca_da = ca_ds.sel(simulation='cnrm-esm2-1')

Step 3: Transform

Pull Annual Maximum Series (AMS) for all grid cells

ca_ams = threshold_tools.get_ams(ca_da, extremes_type='max')
ca_ams = ca_ams.compute()

Subset data by time to prepare it for specific application

ca_1980_ams = ca_ams.sel(time=slice('1980-01-01', '2010-01-01'))
ca_2020_ams = ca_ams.sel(time=slice('2020-01-01', '2050-01-01'))
ca_2050_ams = ca_ams.sel(time=slice('2050-01-01', '2080-01-01'))

Calculate return value for a selected return period

Application Example: A electric utility planning on building new electrical eqiupment across California wants to calculate the value of a 1-in-20-year extreme temperature event that occured historically (during the 1980-2010 time period) and will occur in the future (during the 2020-50 and 2050-80 time periods) to ensure:

they can build planned equipment in areas where the equipment does have the appropriate design standards to withstand extreme temperature events in the future,
and to update the design standards for any future equipment built so that it can account for the range of extreme temperature events across the state.

ca_1980_rv = threshold_tools.get_return_value(ca_1980_ams, return_period=20,
                                              distr='gev', bootstrap_runs=100,
                                              conf_int_lower_bound=2.5,
                                              conf_int_upper_bound=97.5,
                                              multiple_points=True)
ca_1980_rv

ca_2020_rv = threshold_tools.get_return_value(ca_2020_ams, return_period=20,
                                              distr='gev', bootstrap_runs=100,
                                              conf_int_lower_bound=2.5,
                                              conf_int_upper_bound=97.5,
                                              multiple_points=True)
ca_2020_rv

ca_2050_rv = threshold_tools.get_return_value(ca_2050_ams, return_period=20,
                                              distr='gev', bootstrap_runs=100,
                                              conf_int_lower_bound=2.5,
                                              conf_int_upper_bound=97.5,
                                              multiple_points=True)
ca_2050_rv

Apply a filter to showcase which areas of California exceed a certain return value

Application Example: A electric utility is worried about the climate impacts to their solar farms statewide given their current design standards and wants to evaluate those standards for any existing solar farms and update design standards for any future ones.

Their solar farms are made up of crystalline silicon solar cells, which undergo power decreases when ambient air temperature exceeds 25 degrees C (output decreases by 0.66% per 1 degrees C above that threshold).

In order to evaluate and update design standards, they want to look at the value of a 1-in-20-year extreme temperature event that will exceeds 40.15 deggrees C (corresponding to a 10% decrease in power output) both historically (during the 1980-2010 time period) and into the future (during the 2020-50 and 2050-80 time periods).

ca_1980_rv_filtered = ca_1980_rv.where(ca_1980_rv.return_value >= 40.15)

ca_2020_rv_filtered = ca_2020_rv.where(ca_2020_rv.return_value >= 40.15)

ca_2050_rv_filtered = ca_2050_rv.where(ca_2050_rv.return_value >= 40.15)

Calculate return period for a selected return value

Application Example: An electric utility with existing electrical infrastructure across California wants to calculate the return period of a 44 degrees C temperature event that occured historically (during the 1980-2010 time period) and will occur in the future (during the 2020-50 and 2050-80 time periods) to understand:

what areas with existing infrastructure will be impacted by more frequently occuring extreme temperature events in the future,
and to complete a more robust asset-by-asset vulnerability assessment statewide.

For the utility, 33 degrees C (hypothetically) repersents a state-wide historic average for a 1-in-20-year extreme temperature event (during the 1980-2010 time period).

ca_1980_rp = threshold_tools.get_return_period(ca_1980_ams, return_value=33,
                                               distr='gev', bootstrap_runs=100,
                                               conf_int_lower_bound=2.5,
                                               conf_int_upper_bound=97.5,
                                               multiple_points=True)
ca_1980_rp

ca_2020_rp = threshold_tools.get_return_period(ca_2020_ams, return_value=33,
                                               distr='gev', bootstrap_runs=100,
                                               conf_int_lower_bound=2.5,
                                               conf_int_upper_bound=97.5,
                                               multiple_points=True)
ca_2020_rp

ca_2050_rp = threshold_tools.get_return_period(ca_2050_ams, return_value=33,
                                               distr='gev', bootstrap_runs=100,
                                               conf_int_lower_bound=2.5,
                                               conf_int_upper_bound=97.5,
                                               multiple_points=True)
ca_2050_rp

Step 4: Visualize

Visualize return value

threshold_tools.get_geospatial_plot(ca_1980_rv_filtered, data_variable='return_value',
                                    bar_min=44, bar_max=50)

threshold_tools.get_geospatial_plot(ca_2020_rv_filtered, data_variable='return_value',
                                    bar_min=44, bar_max=50)

threshold_tools.get_geospatial_plot(ca_2050_rv_filtered, data_variable='return_value',
                                    bar_min=44, bar_max=50)

Visualize return period

threshold_tools.get_geospatial_plot(ca_1980_rp, data_variable='return_period',
                                    bar_min=1, bar_max=100)

threshold_tools.get_geospatial_plot(ca_2020_rp, data_variable='return_period',
                                    bar_min=1, bar_max=100)

threshold_tools.get_geospatial_plot(ca_2050_rp, data_variable='return_period',
                                    bar_min=1, bar_max=100)

Step 5: Export

Use the below code to export a dataset as a NetCDF, GeoTIFF, or CSV file.

app.export_as()

app.export_dataset(return_period,'my_filename')