AE Guidance

References

The following references have been compiled to provide an overview of the data, methods, and guidance associated with the Analytics Engine. These external references offer detailed insights into how datasets were compiled and how methodologies were designed, and form the backbone of the Analytics Engine’s climate data tools.

For the latest memorandums on the datasets and methodology behind the Analytics Engine, please visit the Climate Data and Analysis Working Group (C-DAWG) page.

Datasets and Methodology

Topic Description Document type Date Reference Link
Bias correction (WRF) Comparative study on the impacts of applying a-priori bias correction vs no bias correction to GCMs. Bias correction improves dynamically downscaled climate projections across the western United States. Journal article May 2024 Rahimi, S., Huang, L., Norris, J., Hall, A.,Goldenson, N., Risser, M., et al. (2024). Understanding the cascade: Removing GCM biases improves dynamically downscaled climate projections. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2023GL106264. Reference Link
Bias correction (WRF) Explanation of when, where, and for which variables a-priori bias correction introduces variance into downscaled projections across the western United States. Journal article May 2024 Risser, M. D., Rahimi, S., Goldenson, N.,Hall, A., Lebo, Z. J., & Feldman, D. R.(2024). Is bias correction in dynamical downscaling defensible? Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2023GL105979. Reference Link
Bias correction (LOCA2-Hybrid and WRF) Methods, QA/QC, and guidance/caveats for the bias correction approaches used for LOCA2-Hybrid and WRF downscaled projections. (See below memo for additional WRF bias correction explanation.) Memorandum for the California Energy Commission December 2023 Pierce, D., S. Rahimi, D. Cayan, J. Kalansky, 2023: Bias Correction in the WRF and LOCA Version 2 Projections. Data Justification Memo for EPC-20-006 Development of Climate Projections for California and Identification of General Use Projections. Reference Link
Bias correction (WRF) Methods, QA/QC, and guidance/caveats for the different bias correction approaches (no bias correction, and a-priori bias correction) used for WRF downscaled projections. Memorandum for the California Energy Commission December 2023 Rahimi, S., 2023: Dynamically Downscaled Datasets. Data Justification Memo for EPC-20-006 Development of Climate Projections for California and Identification of General Use Projections. Reference Link
GCM evaluation and selection Methods, QA/QC, and guidance/caveats regarding the approach to selection and evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs that best capture the characteristics of California’s climate. Memorandum for the California Energy Commission November 2021 Krantz, W., D. W. Pierce, N. Goldenson, and D. R. Cayan, 2021: Memorandum on Evaluating Global Climate Models for Studying Regional Climate Change in California. Interim deliverable for EPC-020-006, 24 pp. Reference Link
General use projections Description of process and selection of models for general use projections. Additional information included on Hourly Sea Level Rise projections and the Cal-Adapt Enterprise. Presentation to the California Energy Commission Climate Data and Analytics Working Group (C-DAWG) December 2023 Kalansky, J., et al. (2023, December 6). Meetings and Documents – Climate Data and Analysis Working Group (C-DAWG). California Energy Commission: Energy-Related Environmental Research Energy Research & Development Division. Reference Link
General use projections Description of criteria, process, selection, and limitations of models for general use projections. Memorandum on General Use Projections August 2024 Kalansky, J., Yao, P., Pierce D., and Cayan, D. (August 2024). Memorandum on General Use Projects, Memo to California Energy Commission as part of EPC-20-006. Reference Link
Hydrology Methods, QA/QC, and guidance/caveats for the use of the hydrology projections. Memorandum for the California Energy Commission November 2023 Bass, B., 2023: Hydrology Projections. Data Justification Memo for EPC-20-006 Development of Climate Projections for California and Identification of General Use Projections. Reference Link
Hydrology Calibration approach used for regionalization of hydrology parameters (study covers its application on the 9 km grid, but the same approach was used for the 3km grid for Noah-MP, VIC). Journal article February 2023 Bass, B., S. Rahimi, N. Goldenson, A. Hall, J. Norris, and Z. J. Lebow, 2023: Achieving Realistic Runoff in the Western United States with a Land Surface Model Forced by Dynamically Downscaled Meteorology. J. Hydrometeor., 24, 269–283. Reference Link
Hydrology Calibration approach used for regionalization of hydrology parameters (study covers its application on the 9 km grid, but the same approach was used for the 3km grid for Noah-MP, VIC). Journal article February 2023 Bass, B., S. Rahimi, N. Goldenson, A. Hall, J. Norris, and Z. J. Lebow, 2023: Achieving Realistic Runoff in the Western United States with a Land Surface Model Forced by Dynamically Downscaled Meteorology. J. Hydrometeor., 24, 269–283, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0047.1. Reference Link
LOCA2-Hybrid Methods, QA/QC, and guidance/caveats for the use of the LOCA2-Hybrid downscaling products. Memorandum for the California Energy Commission December 2023 Pierce, D. W., D. R. Cayan, S. Rahimi, and J. Kalansky, 2023c: LOCA version 2 Hybrid Downscaling. Data Justification Memo for EPC-20-006 Development of Climate Projections for California and Identification of General Use Projections. Reference Link
LOCA2-Hybrid Methods, QA/QC, and guidance/caveats for the development of the LOCA2 training data. Memorandum for the California Energy Commission December 2023 Pierce, D. W., S. Rahimi, D. R. Cayan, and J. Kalansky, 2023b: Bias Correction in the WRF and LOCA2 Projections. Data Justification Memo for EPC-20-006 Development of Climate Projections for California and Identification of General Use Projections. Reference Link
LOCA2-Hybrid Development and availability of LOCA2 projections (with ensemble bias correction). Journal article May 2023 Pierce, D. W., D. R. Cayan, D. R. Feldman, and M. D. Risser, 2023: Future Increases in North American Extreme Precipitation in CMIP6 Downscaled with LOCA. J. Hydrometeor, 24, 951–975. Reference Link
Sea level Methods, QA/QC, and guidance/caveats for the development of the hourly sea level rise projections. Memorandum for the California Energy Commission November 2023 Cayan, D., S. Iacobellis, J. Kalansky, 2023: Hourly Sea Level Projections from CMIP6 Climate and Weather. Data Justification Memo for EPC-20-006 Development of Climate Projections for California and Identification of General Use Projections. Reference Link
Sea level Hourly sea level rise projections – modeling technique. Journal article January 2008 Cayan, D.R., Bromirski, P.D., Hayhoe, K. et al. Climate change projections of sea level extremes along the California coast. Climatic Change 87 (Suppl 1), 57–73 (2008). Reference Link
WRF (Also includes LOCA2-Hybrid) Recommendations for use of specific, dynamically downscaled models (with a-priori bias correction). Also includes information on LOCA2-Hybrid downscaling and targeted case studies for extreme events. Presentation to the California Energy Commission Climate Data and Analytics Working Group (C-DAWG) May 2024 Kalansky, J., et al. (2024, May 17). Meetings and Documents – Climate Data and Analysis Working Group (C-DAWG). California Energy Commission: Energy-Related Environmental Research Energy Research & Development Division. Reference Link
WRF Dynamical downscaling evaluation – results from 16 dynamically downscaled CMIP6 simulations over the Western United States (WUS-D3), including the whole of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region. Journal article March 2024 Rahimi, S., Huang, L., Norris, J., Hall, A., Goldenson, N., Krantz, W., Bass, B., Thackeray, C., Lin, H., Chen, D., Dennis, E., Collins, E., Lebo, Z. J., Slinskey, E., Graves, S., Biyani, S., Wang, B., Cropper, S., and the UCLA Center for Climate Science Team: An overview of the Western United States Dynamically Downscaled Dataset (WUS-D3), Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 2265–2286, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-2265-2024, 2024. Reference Link
WRF Dynamical downscaling evaluation – evaluation of the performance of four dynamically downscaled projections using WRF (no bias correction). Memorandum for the California Energy Commission October 2022 Rahimi-Esfarjan, S., 2022b: Memorandum on the evaluation of downscaled GCM using WRF (deliverable for EPC-20-006).Report to California Energy Commission. Memo for EPC-20-006 Development of Climate Projections for California and Identification of General Use Projections. Reference Link
WRF Dynamical downscaling technique – development and availability of four dynamically downscaled projections using WRF (no bias correction). Memorandum for the California Energy Commission April 2022 Rahimi-Esfarjan, S., 2022a: Memorandum on the development and availability of dynamically downscaled projections using WRF. Memo for EPC-20-006 Development of Climate Projections for California and Identification of General Use Projections. Reference Link
WRF Dynamical downscaling evaluation – method and results from dynamical downscaling of the historical record across the Western United States using (ERA5). Journal article January 2022 Rahimi, S., Krantz, W., Lin, Y.-H.,Bass, B., Goldenson, N., Hall, A., et al.(2022). Evaluation of a reanalysis-driven configuration of WRF4 over the western United States from 1980 to 2020. Journalof Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127, e2021JD035699. Reference Link

Resources for Adaptation Planning

Title Description Document type Date Reference Link
Climate Data Users Guide Guide to the selection of suitable climate data for physical climate risk assessment. Includes a brief review of the climate modeling science and statistics used in climate science, as well as specific descriptions of sources of past and future data. Guidebook 2024 Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)

 

Climate Data Users Guide. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2024. 3002028078. 		Reference Link
Guide for Federal Agency Climate Adaptation Planners A high-level, federal guide for selecting resources (data, tools, reports, case studies, etc.) for understanding climate vulnerabilities. Focuses on exposure to climate-related hazards and their potential impacts. Guidebook 2023 The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP)

 

OSTP (2023). Selecting Climate Information to Use in Climate Risk and Impact Assessments: Guide for Federal Agency Climate Adaptation Planners. White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. Washington, D.C. 		Reference Link
Fifth National Climate Assessment The U.S. Government’s report on climate change impacts, risks, and responses. Provides the scientific foundation to support informed decision-making across the U.S. Includes chapters on the physical science, as well as national, regional, and response-related topical chapters. Report 2023 U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) Reference Link
IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Comprehensive report developed as part of the United Nations to assess the science related to climate change and provide the scientific basis for governments to develop climate related policies. Includes scientific, technical and socio-economic knowledge on climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for reducing the rate of climate change. Report 2021-2023 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Reference Link
A User Guide to Climate Change Portals Online guide that has collated a list of the various different climate data portals and resources. This can help users effectively identify, acquire and interpret climate change information that is appropriate for their specific context. Website 2022 Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI)

 

Vano, JA and JJ Lukas, (2022) A User Guide to Climate Change Portals. Prepared for those seeking climate change information by the Aspen Global Change Institute. www.agci.org/climate-portal-guide 		Reference Link
Implementing the Steps to Resilience: a Practitioner's Guide Guidance on how to consider different methods for vulnerability and risk assessment, decision making, measuring and evaluating project components, and reporting on adaptation planning and implementation. Guidebook 2022 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office

 

Gardiner, Ned, ed., Matt Hutchins, Jim Fox, Aashka Patel, and Kim Rhodes. Implementing the Steps to Resilience: a Practitioner’s Guide. Climate-Smart Communities Series, Vol. 6. NOAA Climate Program Office, 2022. 10.25923/9hhx-2m82 		Reference Link
U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit A compilation of resources from the U.S. federal government for planning and deploying climate adaptation and resilience-building efforts at state and local levels. Website 2021 U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office Reference Link
Guidance and Recommendations for Use of (Downscaled) Climate Information Guidance on how to select, apply, and interpret downscaled climate information for use in planning. Book chapter 2021 Kotamarthi R, Hayhoe K, Mearns LO, Wuebbles D, Jacobs J, Jurado J. Guidance and Recommendations for Use of (Downscaled) Climate Information. In: Downscaling Techniques for High-Resolution Climate Projections: From Global Change to Local Impacts. Cambridge University Press; 2021:139-156. Reference Link
California Adaptation Planning Guide Guidance on local adaptation and resilience planning in California. Includes a summary of statewide guidance, resources and tools, as well as links to federal resources. Website 2020 The California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research

 

Developed in response to Senate Bill 246. 		Reference Link
DOs and DON'Ts for using climate change information for water resource planning and management: guidelines for study design Highlights better practices for incorporating climate change information within planning and management. Includes strategies, guidelines, and frequently asked questions. Journal article 2018 Julie A. Vano, Jeffrey R. Arnold, Bart Nijssen, Martyn P. Clark, Andrew W. Wood, Ethan D. Gutmann, Nans Addor, Joseph Hamman, Flavio Lehner, DOs and DON'Ts for using climate change information for water resource planning and management: guidelines for study design, Climate Services, Volume 12, 2018, Pages 1-13, ISSN 2405-8807, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2018.07.002. Reference Link
Planning and Investing for a Resilient California: A Guidebook for State Agencies Guidance on climate risks and how to consider them in planning and investment. Guidebook 2018 The California Governor’s Office of Planning and Research

 

Developed by the Technical Advisory Group (TAG), formed under EO B-30-15. 		Reference Link
Climate Data in Emergency Planning and Management Guidance on how to incorporate the best available information on climate variability and change into emergency management planning Report August 2024 Albano, C., McCarthy, M., McAfee, S., Wein, A., Dettinger, M. Incorporating Climate Data into Emergency Planning and Exercises - A Primer for Emergency Management Practitioners and Data Developers. August 2024. 41303.

 

Prepared by the Desert Research Institution and the U.S. Geological Survey

 

Prepared for the California Department of Water Resources 		Reference Link